Japanese rice prices double, yet farmers are reluctant to plant
Foodthink Says
But is Japan truly facing a rice shortage? In reality, Japan’s rice production has been in surplus since the 1960s. In a country where the food self-sufficiency rate has plummeted to 38%, rice has become the only major agricultural product that remains self-sufficient. However, this is not due to high yields, but rather the result of a steady decline in rice consumption since the end of the war. While the Japanese people still treasure rice, their dietary structures became Westernised during the process of modernisation, influenced by American economic, cultural, and diplomatic pressures, leading to more diverse choices for staple foods.
Rice is a food the Japanese take great pride in and one of the most significant symbols of Japanese culture. Yet, the deeper issues behind this price surge—and how things reached this point—are rarely discussed.
I. What exactly happened?
Starting last summer, rice prices in Japan rose while supply dwindled, triggered by extreme heat in 2023 which caused grains to become chalky and reduced the yield of edible rice. By August, fearing shortages, many consumers began panic buying, and the volume of rice purchased at retail stores and supermarkets increased to 1.5 times the usual amount.
Beyond the crop failures caused by climate change, the Japanese government also attributed the price hikes to the surge in inbound tourists, whose consumption placed further strain on the supply.
At the time, the government concluded that the issue would be resolved in October once the new harvest hit the market. However, after the new rice arrived, prices did not return to normal levels; instead, they continued to climb. As of November 2024, rice prices remained 60% higher than the same period the previous year.
Price data released by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications in June showed that in Tokyo’s 23 wards, the tax-inclusive price for 5kg of Koshihikari rice was 5,072 yen, an increase of 102 yen from May. This marked the 14th consecutive month of price increases, and a rise of 2,511 yen compared to the same period last year—more than double the previous price.
II. Is Japan short of rice?
Ding Wei, who lives in Kobe, observed that rice was always available at her local supermarket, though the prices were more than double those of 2023. Fortunately, she has a diverse diet and does not rely heavily on rice, but the price surge likely places a significant burden on families of four or five.
Zhang Manqing from the Center for Field Science Education and Research at Kyoto University also noted that she hadn’t seen any actual shortages; supermarkets restocked daily, but the price increases were substantial. She pointed out that between 2015 and 2020, 5kg of rice cost around 2,000 yen; currently, prices range between 4,000 and 5,000 yen—an increase of 2 to 2.5 times.
Behind this spike in prices and the perceived shortage lies a traditional Japanese agricultural policy designed to suppress supply in order to maintain price levels: the “Gentan” (acreage reduction) policy.
Japan’s food self-sufficiency rate reached 88% in 1955. From the 1960s onwards, influenced by geopolitics, international trade, and social development, the concepts of agrarianism and the associated policies and mainstream social views began to fade. Japan, along with South Korea and Taiwan, came under strong American influence during this period, shifting toward export-led manufacturing while importing vast quantities of wheat and maize from the US. Agriculture and rural communities began to be marginalised.
As industrialisation accelerated, large numbers of people moved from the countryside to cities to meet labour demands, and dietary habits began to change. The Westernisation of diet is often viewed as a benchmark of national modernisation.
On one hand, Japan’s economy and trade became deeply entwined with the US; conversely, American food diplomacy pushed the Japanese to consume American goods. The US exported large quantities of wheat, meat, and soybeans and maize for animal feed. During this period, the Japanese began to adopt American standards of nutrition based on animal protein, and their diets shifted toward meat, eggs, milk, bread, and pasta, leading to a corresponding decrease in rice consumption.
Data shows that while Japan’s overall food self-sufficiency rate dropped sharply in the 60s to below 50%, its rice self-sufficiency remained at 100%. Other staples like soybeans and grains relied heavily on imports, with external dependency exceeding 90%. In 1962, per capita rice consumption was 118.3kg—roughly 5.4 bowls of rice per day. Since then, demand for rice has fallen while the consumption of meat, eggs, and milk has risen. By 2020, per capita rice consumption had dropped to 50.8kg.
By the 1970s, the Japanese no longer required so much rice, and the government began adjusting agricultural structures and policies. To prevent price crashes resulting from overproduction—which would harm small-scale farmers—Japan implemented the “Gentan” policy. By controlling the area planted with rice and subsidising farmers to switch to large-scale cash crops, the government sought to stabilise rice prices and guarantee farmer incomes.
Under the pressure of the Gentan policy, Japan’s rice production fell sharply. Yields dropped from over 13 million tonnes in the late 60s to 8.5 million tonnes in 2010, and further to 7.76 million tonnes in 2020. Even with this decline, there was still enough rice to eat. In 2020, for example, the average per capita consumption was 50.8kg—roughly 2.3 bowls of rice per day. Wheat-based staples such as bread and pasta had supplanted rice’s original place in the diet.
III. The policy shadow cast over the rice fields
Due to climate change, production fell to 6.61 million tonnes in 2023, rising slightly to 6.83 million tonnes in 2024. Production has been halved since the peak of 13 million tonnes in the 60s, but have prices stabilised? Has farmer income remained steady?
While Japanese rice may seem expensive to those in China, procurement prices for Japanese rice have long been kept low. In recent years, the cost of producing 60kg of rice has been 15,000 yen (approximately 750 RMB), while the procurement price was only 12,000 yen (approximately 600 RMB). The government has had to provide a subsidy of 3,000 yen just to cover the farmers’ losses.
Zhang Manqing noted that before the ‘Reiwa Rice Commotion’, the general view in Japanese academia was that an average price of 2,000 yen for 5kg of rice was too low, leaving farmers with little profit. However, with current prices for 5kg ranging between 4,000 and 5,000 yen, the cost has become difficult for consumers to bear. She believes that a price of around 3,000 yen would be a fair balance for both farmers and consumers.
IV. Who sets the price?
In addition to agricultural services, it provides financial services and is one of Japan’s largest regional financial institutions. Moreover, because JA commands the loyalty of most farmers, it wields significant political influence, capable of swaying agricultural policy and even influencing elections. In reality, it is JA that determines the price of rice in Japan today.
Opinions of JA vary among farmers. Some larger-scale farmers find it convenient, as it provides end-to-end support from seeding to sales. For those lacking their own sales channels, JA is their only option.
However, selling through JA requires a commission fee of 15% to 20%, which can be prohibitive for small-scale farmers. Furthermore, JA’s procurement criteria are stringent, making it difficult to secure a premium price.
Zhang Manqing told Foodthink that JA has numerous absurdly strict regulations for procurement; pricing is based not only on taste but also on strict aesthetic standards. Take cucumbers, for example: they must meet exact specifications—being slightly too short or too long is unacceptable. Any that fall outside these parameters are classified as ‘Grade 2′, resulting in a lower procurement price. Curved cucumbers are not even eligible for grading and are sent to be made into pickled cucumbers, fetching the lowest price of all. While people often admire the exquisite variety of fruit and vegetables in Japanese supermarkets, the reality is that meeting these standards is incredibly difficult for farmers.
Consequently, an increasing number of farmers are seeking new sales channels in an attempt to break free from JA’s monopoly.
Some small-scale farmers have adopted a ’boutique’ approach, supplying small quantities of high-quality produce to specific supermarkets or attempting to connect directly with consumers. Community Supported Agriculture (CSA) is one such model. When travelling through the Japanese countryside, it is common to find locally produced ‘farmer-direct’ rice; the production and pricing of this rice were less affected by the broader market conditions during the recent rice shortage.
V.Rural Decay: Where Does the Future of Agriculture Lie?
While the low birth rate and ageing population are challenges across all sectors in Japan, the impact on agriculture is particularly severe. In 2020, 70% of farmers were aged 65 or older, while only 11% were aged 49 or younger. By 2023, the average age of a Japanese farmer had reached 68.7.
As the average age continues to climb and more farmers retire, the labour shortage intensifies. This imbalanced age structure poses a significant challenge to agricultural production.
According to a census released by the Research Institute of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries in 2020, over 70% of farm operators had “not yet determined a successor” for the next five years. Among operators aged 70 or older who may soon need to hand over their business, fewer than 30% had identified a successor. The lack of successors is especially acute for fruit, rice, and open-field vegetable farming, where the figure is around 70%, indicating a deepening succession crisis in agriculture.
Agriculture in Japan is often viewed as “hard, dirty, and tedious” work. Young people feel that the investment required for farming is disproportionate to the income earned; they can earn more in the city for the same amount of time and effort, making urban employment far more attractive than farming. Even older farmers are often reluctant to see their children continue in the profession.
According to data from the Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries (MAFF), the average annual profit for full-time rice farmers who rely solely on rice cultivation for their household income is between 2.5 million and 3 million yen (approximately £13,000–£16,000). This is not considered a high income in Japan.
In one extreme example, due to a crash in rice prices in 2022, the average income of all rice farmers plummeted to 10,000 yen. When divided by working hours, this equated to just 10 yen per hour. That year, “rice farmers earning 10 yen an hour” became a trending topic in Japan. While this estimate—calculated by dividing average income by annual working hours—may not reflect the full complexity of the situation, it illustrates the severe impact of rice prices on farmer livelihoods. In March of this year, protests broke out in several Japanese cities with farmers demanding an increase in this “10-yen-an-hour” wage standard.
By 2023, as rice prices recovered, the average hourly wage for all rice farmers reached 63 yen, while the hourly wage for full-time farmers (those for whom agriculture is their primary profession) was approximately 1,000 yen. At first glance, this seems reasonable, but it is roughly equivalent to the minimum wage in Japan—and this figure is calculated based on full-time farmers operating large-scale farms; smallholders still earn far less.
Slumping rice prices, rural ageing, and the lack of successors have contributed to the loss of over 10,000 hectares of rice paddies every year.
Data released by MAFF in 2022 shows that Japan’s total cultivated land area was 4.325 million hectares, a decrease of 24,000 hectares (0.6%) from the previous year. The area of paddy fields was 2.352 million hectares, down 14,000 hectares from the year before.
Ageing also contributes to land abandonment in another way. Zhang Manqing told Foodthink that as the rural population declines, wild animals from the mountains more frequently descend to attack villages and destroy crops. For safety reasons, farmers tend to first abandon terraced fields in the mountains or farmland adjacent to mountain areas. Since 70% of Japan is mountainous, and many of these mountain terraces are used for rice, this abandonment leads directly to reduced rice production.
When the rural population drops below a certain threshold, the basic living functions of rural settlements collapse. Essential services such as hospitals, schools, and transport grind to a halt. Professor Emeritus Eiji Yamaji of the Faculty of Agriculture at the University of Tokyo noted during a seminar that approximately 7,000 settlements have vanished over the last 30 years due to depopulation and ageing.
If this trend continues, rice shortages may become an annual occurrence. At that point, the crisis will not just be about soaring prices; the Japanese people may lose their farmers and their countryside entirely.
This September, Japan will welcome another harvest season. Will rice prices continue to climb? And will farmers finally benefit from these increases? Foodthink will continue to monitor the situation.
Editor: Tianle