● Caroline van der Plas, leader of the Farmer-Citizen Movement, speaks on stage following the announcement of the election results. Source: NUSince Dutch farmers’ protests against nitrogen reduction policies began over six months ago, the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BoerBurgerBeweging, or BBB), widely seen as ‘pro-farmer’, has emerged as a dark horse in this March’s provincial elections. Founded just four years ago, the BBB not only secured nearly 20% of the vote but is set to win 17 seats in the Senate, becoming the largest party overnight. But is this electoral success truly a victory for Dutch farmers and agriculture? To understand this, we must first look at the nitrogen reduction policies that sparked nationwide protests.
I. Nitrogen Emissions: Are the Cows Really to Blame?
The catalyst for these nitrogen policies was the European Union’s protection of nature reserves (Natura 2000). Scientists argue that excessive nitrogen-containing gases (nitrogen oxides and ammonia) in the air re-enter the soil, causing ‘nitrogen deposition’, which in turn leads to various ecological disasters. The Netherlands is the highest nitrogen emitter in Europe.
According to calculations by the National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM), 41% of this deposition stems from agricultural emissions. Consequently, when the Dutch government demanded a 70% reduction in nitrogen emissions by 2030 last year to protect the country’s fragile reserves, agriculture naturally became the primary target for regulation: the policy aims to reduce livestock numbers by 30%, alongside government buy-outs and production halts to address the issue of these farms.
It is little wonder Dutch farmers feel they are being ‘targeted’. Previously, in greenhouse gas calculations, agricultural emissions accounted for less than 10% of the national total; however, when the method of calculating emissions changed, agriculture suddenly became the ‘prime culprit’.
●Nitrogen emission distribution map calculated by the RIVM. Nitrogen emissions primarily account for ammonia (square icons) and nitrogen oxides (circular icons). The top five emitters are: Tata Steel, Schiphol Airport, Dow Chemical, Chemelot, and Shell.
That said, nitrogen emissions from Dutch livestock farming have long been a serious issue. But if we delve deeper into the sources of these emissions, the story becomes more complex.
“The urine and faeces of cows mix to form ammonia; we live in a haze of cow dung.” Last year, two well-known Dutch comedians used the tune of Leonard Cohen’s famous ‘Hallelujah’ to create a satirical song called ‘Alle koeien’ (All the Cows), mocking the government for pinning all nitrogen emissions on livestock manure.
In reality, the digestion and excretion of livestock are perfectly normal physiological processes; the real problem is the excessively high stocking density. According to 2021 data, across the Netherlands’ 40,000 square kilometres of land (roughly six and a half times the size of Shanghai), there are 3.8 million cows, 11.4 million pigs, and nearly 100 million chickens—a stocking density four times the EU average.
The large-scale import of soya feed and the nitrogen fertilisers required for forage crops are the prerequisites that make such high-density intensive farming possible. The Netherlands is the world’s sixth-largest importer of soya, importing 4.16 million tonnes valued at $1.96 billion from countries including Brazil, the USA, and Canada in 2021. In terms of cultivation area, this is equivalent to importing a grain yield nine times the size of its own agricultural land, exceeding the total land area of the Netherlands.
Total livestock in the Dutch farming industry, 2021Total soya imports and sources for the Netherlands, 2021. During the same period, China’s soya import value was 27.3 times that of the Netherlands.
And those who encouraged the import of feed and nitrogen fertilisers were precisely the Dutch government—with its long-standing strategy of agricultural expansion—the multinational agri-giant Cargill, and Rabobank, which provided the financial backing and encouraged the scaling up of operations for companies like Cargill. If we are to truly trace the source of nitrogen emissions, they are far more culpable than the cows in the barns.
II. Who is Driving Intensive Farming?
“Growing a better world together.” This is the false vision concocted in Rabobank’s official slogans. In reality, Rabobank is a prime instigator of various environmental issues, including the nitrogen crisis, and the greatest beneficiary of the industrialisation of Dutch livestock farming. The model of scaled-up operations encouraged by Rabobank is termed “entrepreneurial agriculture” by Professor Jan Douwe van der Ploeg, the former chair of the sociology department at Wageningen University and author of *The New Peasant Class*.
Professor Ye Jingzhong of China Agricultural University summarised its characteristics in the preface to *The New Peasant Class* as follows: “…As expansion relies heavily on credit, entrepreneurial agriculture carries relatively high debt. Consequently, financial pressure is transformed into a demand for accelerated production, utilising every available piece of land to generate the highest possible financial output (profit) to service interest and principal repayments.”
The trend towards industrialisation in Dutch farms is a case in point: between 2000 and 2021, the average farm size increased by 1 to 2.3 times and Rabobank’s earnings quadrupled, yet the farmers themselves failed to reap the expected rewards from “economies of scale”. Why?
● From top to bottom: average livestock numbers for pigs, dairy cows, and laying hens on Dutch farms (in thousands), followed by Rabobank’s credit profits. Source: Greenpeace NetherlandsThe reason is simple: bank credit is tied to chemical inputs with ever-increasing production costs and expensive technological investments required for large-scale farming, such as heavy machinery, computers, and agricultural robots. Those reaping the rewards are the feed, fertiliser, veterinary drug, and machinery companies, alongside slaughterhouses, meat and dairy processing plants, and the cooperative banks that invest across the entire value chain. For the farmers, the outlook is far less optimistic. They are squeezed between persistently high input costs and the low procurement prices dictated by supermarkets and retailers. In 2016, over 44% of Dutch farmers lived below the low-income threshold; among dairy farmers, this figure rose to 56%. Poverty was particularly acute in pig farming, where average debts reached €1.8 million.
Under last year’s nitrogen reduction policy, the Dutch government will allocate nearly €750 million in compensation for the closure and buyout of livestock farms. While these funds may help some farmers clear their debts, they will ultimately flow directly back to the cooperative banks. As the primary investors in industrial farming, these banks remain virtually unscathed by the nitrogen crisis, while farmers’ livelihoods, biodiversity, and public finances pay a heavy price for their negative externalities.
III. Where is the way forward for Dutch agriculture?
● In March this year, proponents of agroecology also organised a protest march. The Dutch slogan in the centre reads: “More farmers, less CO2”.Professor Van der Ploeg told Foodthink, “We are currently in a state of dual vacuum. First, there is a political vacuum: no party has yet possessed the courage and vision to put forward an effective proposal. Second, there is a socio-technical vacuum: there is a lack of a practical solution that is acceptable to all stakeholders.” It is not that solutions are entirely absent. In fact, he believes that ‘small-scale farming’ represents a possible way out of the current environmental crisis. Agroecology, which champions small-scale farming and emphasises the synergistic development of agriculture, nature, and society, has also been proven through years of research and exploration to be capable of addressing the dual crisis of agriculture and the environment.
Even in the Netherlands, alongside intensive farming that is heavily reliant on markets and external inputs, there are many small farms that have transitioned to ecological cultivation and rearing. By eschewing inputs such as chemical fertilisers, pesticides, and herbicides, and rebuilding nutrient and energy cycles through free-range livestock, these farms are able to produce in greater harmony with nature.
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Professor Van der Ploeg also notes that in the Netherlands, where the narrative is dominated by industrial agriculture and agribusinesses, vested interests are unlikely to accept sustainable transition plans that enhance the autonomy of small-scale farmers. Instead, they will persist in pushing high-cost technical solutions, further entrenching farmers, the government, and society within their “technology trap”. This may explain why the left-wing Animal Party—despite pledging to tax Rabobank and subsidise sustainable agriculture—failed to secure the support of the majority of farming voters, and why the organisations behind the ten-point ‘Green Farmers’ Plan’ petition still struggle to make their voices heard in public discourse.
01 Achieve fair pricing through public financial interventions, such as taxes on pollution.02 Establish a rational and comprehensive pricing mechanism that fully accounts for farmers’ interests and environmental value.03 Advocate for circular agriculture that integrates crop and livestock production to reduce reliance on external fertilisers.04 Ensure farmers can participate fully in decision-making and action.05 The government and society should provide comprehensive support for farmers’ transition.06 The government should lead by example, establishing mechanisms to encourage ecological farming, promoting healthy diets, and preventing corporate greenwashing.07 Promote localised, short-supply-chain agriculture.08 Land policies must serve the interests of sustainable agriculture.09 Embed nature-inclusive principles into agricultural education, encourage farmers to participate in transition research, and provide payment to farmers who share their knowledge and experience.10 Emphasise legislative fairness to ensure laws and regulations are equitable, appropriate, and incentivising.Has the pro-farmer BBB party truly grasped the severity of the nitrogen emissions crisis? It seems not. Party leader Caroline van der Plas has repeatedly argued that nitrogen reduction policies are a self-imposed trap created by the Dutch government rather than direct directives from the EU. She contends that the Netherlands should simply comply with EU laws like any other member state, without exerting additional effort to reduce nitrogen. Now that the election dust has settled, she has begun actively seeking dialogue with the EU to secure more leeway for Dutch livestock farmers.
However, what is crushing Dutch farmers is not merely a top-down, one-size-fits-all environmental policy, but a production model that drives farmers into bankruptcy while allowing financiers and upstream corporations to reap the rewards. The BBB, which prides itself on high-efficiency agriculture and the export of high-quality produce, likely has no intention of changing this unsustainable system.
● Some commentators suggest that the BBB’s success was bolstered by absorbing right-wing voters from the populist Forum for Democracy (FvD). In 2019, the FvD, adept at exploiting anti-immigrant and anti-Muslim sentiment, achieved a breakthrough in the Senate, jumping from zero to 12 seats, only to lose influence shortly after due to internal strife and an inability to handle practical issues. Pictured: FvD leader Thierry Baudet. Source: EPAHow will the rise of the BBB affect Dutch politics? Where will nitrogen reduction policies go from here? It remains to be seen. However, one thing is certain: the solution to the nitrogen crisis must be systemic. The widespread social and political backlash underscores the complex relationship between agriculture and environmental protection—a relationship that cannot be resolved through one-size-fits-all mathematical calculations. Any attempt to simplify, polarise, or avoid the core issues will only exacerbate the crisis. In this regard, Professor Van der Ploeg further stated that it is time for small-scale farming to return to centre stage, allowing its ecological potential to be fully realised. Yet, even in Europe, where environmental awareness is highest, the intricate relationship between agriculture and the environment remains a deep chasm separating urban residents, farmers, and academics.
Unless there is a shared public recognition of the unsustainability of the current agricultural model, genuine political progress will be impossible, and conservative forces like the BBB will ultimately return to the forefront.
Notes and Referenceshttps://www.dutchnews.nl/news/2023/03/brussels-or-the-hague-van-der-plas-and-timmermans-to-meet/https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/16/world/europe/netherlands-elections-farmers-emissions.html
