Are Good Wine Vintages Becoming Rarer?
Is the shift towards warmer and wetter conditions in China’s northwestern region a benefit or a detriment to local agriculture?
The instinctive reaction among many is that increased moisture is a positive development for the arid inland northwest—after all, access to water means more crops can be cultivated. Yet the impact of climate change on agriculture is complex and inherently unpredictable, echoing the butterfly effect.
Take the region’s flagship industry—wine production—as an example. Rising temperatures and increased rainfall are already reshaping both the yield and quality of wine grapes. Within agriculture, wine grapes are frequently compared to the ‘canary in the coal mine’. In the past, coal miners would take canaries down into the shafts because the birds’ sensitivity to toxic gases far surpassed that of humans; if a canary fell ill or died, it served as an early warning to evacuate. Similarly, wine is exceptionally sensitive to climatic conditions, and its fortunes offer a clear reflection of local environmental shifts. This is precisely why the vintage year is so crucial when selecting wine: only the right balance of sunlight, warmth, and moisture can yield a truly exceptional bottle.
In this way, the story of wine grapes offers a glimpse into the unprecedented challenges currently facing agriculture across the northwestern region.
The shift towards becoming “wetter”, however, did not begin until the mid-1980s. This climatic shift was first identified in 2002 by Shi Yafeng, an academician of the Chinese Academy of Sciences, who proposed that, against the backdrop of global warming, much of Northwest China would follow a trend towards warmer and wetter conditions.
Over the twenty years that followed, scientists continuously recorded an increase in precipitation across the northwest. In recent years, the occurrence of rare, extreme rainfall events in the region has captured public attention. In July 2021, for instance, torrential rains triggered flooding in the Taklamakan Desert, inundating an area of over 300 square kilometres.
The international environmental organisation Greenpeace recently published a report, *The Temperature of Civilisation: An Assessment of the Systemic Impacts of Climate Change on the Ecology, Industry, and Cultural Heritage of Northwest China*. It concludes that rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns driven by climate change are increasing both the frequency and intensity of extreme weather events, posing a severe challenge to the stability of local ecosystems, the sustainability of agriculture, and the preservation of material cultural heritage in the region.
I. Warming: A Double-Edged Sword
Ms Yin explains that grapes are particularly sensitive to climatic conditions. If adverse weather strikes during key growth stages, it can drastically reduce yields, sometimes leading to total crop failure. In the face of such weather uncertainty, their current priority lies in early warning and defence against crop damage, as well as post-disaster recovery.
For instance, in late April 2020, Zhangye suffered four consecutive days of freezing conditions, with temperatures plunging to between -6°C and -8°C. The frost not only prevented the vines from bearing fruit that year but also set back their growth by two to three years, resulting in economic losses running into the tens of millions of yuan.
Against the broader backdrop of warming and increased moisture in the northwest, such disasters are unfortunately likely to become more frequent. Li Zhao, author of the aforementioned Greenpeace report, recalled that when she visited Zhangye’s vineyards in April 2022, the local growers were on high alert, bracing for a potential late frost. Piles of timber and cattle manure had been staged around the vines; should temperatures drop too low, they could be lit to create a protective smoke curtain and raise the air temperature.
“Yet on the very night we were filming, snow began falling over Zhangye, and fires were lit across the vineyards on the city’s outskirts. One of the viticulture technicians noted that severe late frosts causing substantial losses have struck several times in recent years. Despite decades of managing vineyards, he confessed that he increasingly feels he is ‘losing the knack’ for growing them,” she added.
Since the 1980s, driven by climate warming, higher accumulated temperatures, and extended growing seasons, China’s suitable zones for viticulture have been steadily shifting northward. While this is undoubtedly a boon for colder northern regions that were previously too frostbound for vineyards, it has also introduced significant management challenges for traditional growing areas. For one, higher temperatures during the crucial summer growth phase cause grapes to ripen earlier and accumulate more sugar, fundamentally altering the wine’s profile: alcohol levels rise, while aromatic complexity and acidity diminish. Greenpeace’s research indicates that over the past sixty years, the increase in effective accumulated temperature during the growing season has become a primary constraint on grape quality in northwestern Jiuquan and parts of Longnan. Furthermore, a study by the Ningxia Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster Prevention and Mitigation found that rising average temperatures during Yinchuan’s hottest month similarly compromises the quality of wine grapes.
Furthermore, a warm winter is a double-edged sword. Although average temperatures in northwestern China have risen markedly since the 1960s, boosting winter averages, this shift can adversely affect wine grapes: first, it allows pests to overwinter more easily; second, warmer winters trigger earlier budburst in vines, inadvertently leaving them more exposed to late frosts.
On the other hand, despite warmer winters, cold damage remains a persistent threat to wine grapes.
The late frost event in Zhangye described above also affected Ningxia’s wine region on the eastern slopes of the Helan Mountains. In March 2018, daily average temperatures ran 5–6°C above historical norms, prompting the buried vines to break bud early. A series of frosts in early April then killed all the new growth. In recent years, late frosts have cut wine grape yields in Ningxia in over 40% of years. Li Yuding, a prominent local viticulture specialist, has pointed out in his research that late frost damage has become the second most significant meteorological hazard across much of the north, trailing only drought.
Greenpeace reports that since the turn of the millennium, the frequency of late frosts in Gansu Province has increased sharply, with frost events during the budburst-to-flowering period rising across most of northern Gansu. The report attributes this primarily to changes in extreme low temperatures. In the context of global warming, temperature extremes are intensifying—both severe heat and severe cold are becoming more pronounced, meaning warmer spells grow hotter and colder spells grow colder. For example, from 1961 to 2020, the extreme low temperature during the average wine grape growing season in Gansu fell at a rate of 0.045°C per decade. This downward trend accelerated to 0.14°C per decade between 1991 and 2020, and is even more marked during the budburst-to-flowering stage.
II. Wetting: Declining Wine Quality
Writing for The Intellectual, Chen Yaning—a researcher at the Chinese Academy of Sciences’ Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography and director of the State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology—notes that while total rainfall in the north-west has increased, the actual number of rainy days has not. The rise in precipitation volume is largely driven by heavier individual storms and downpours. This higher frequency of extreme rainfall, he warns, will only intensify climate-related hazards, elevating the risks of prolonged droughts and localised flash flooding across the region.
For traditional wine-growing regions, a wetter climate is far from universally beneficial. Rainfall in the lead-up to harvest can cause berries to split, dilute their sugar content, and leave vines highly vulnerable to downy mildew. In recent years, wetter summers across north China and the north-west have been particularly distressing for vineyard owners. To face prolonged rain just as the harvest approaches, threatening to ruin months of careful work, is a heartbreak any grower knows too well. Take Yinchuan, a key wine-producing region, for instance. Data spanning 1961 to 2015 reveals a clear upward trend in both rainfall volume and the number of rainy days during September—the critical month preceding the harvest—posing a direct threat to wine quality.
Grapes are not the only crop at risk. For produce accustomed to arid conditions, increased rainfall often brings unintended negative consequences. The Zhiliangtian ecological farm in Alxa encountered exactly this problem: last summer, after several consecutive days of rain, sharp differences in internal moisture and temperature caused melons to crack. A quarter of the crop could not be harvested, and the surviving fruit suffered a noticeable drop in sweetness.
III. The Climate Dilemma of Wine Grapes: A World Sharing the Same Temperature Extremes
*Time* magazine has reported on the potential extinction of Merlot, often hailed as the ‘queen of red wines’, in the world-renowned Bordeaux region. Rising temperatures have caused grapes in Bordeaux to ripen earlier and develop higher sugar levels over recent decades, with Merlot emerging as the most severely affected variety.
Winemakers are currently striving to breed new varieties suited to a warming climate, adapt planting and irrigation techniques, and even scout for alternative growing sites. Historically, to preserve the unique and authentic character of Bordeaux wines, French authorities permitted only six red and eight white grape varieties within the Bordeaux appellation. However, in a notable exception in 2019, six new varieties were introduced specifically to help the region adapt to climate change.
The book *The Earth Doesn’t Care* also highlights the pest problems facing European wine grapes. Climate warming has expanded the habitat of the spotted-wing drosophila, with sightings increasingly reported in regions that previously experienced harsh winters. This threat extends beyond wine grapes to a wide range of other fruits. Scientists warn that as temperatures continue to climb, the pest’s range will only widen further.
A 2020 study found that without intervention, a global temperature rise of 2 °C would see 56% of the world’s current wine grape-growing land disappear; at 4 °C, that figure would soar to 85%. According to the latest IPCC report, global temperatures have already risen by more than 1 °C since the Industrial Revolution. The World Meteorological Organisation declared that July of this year was the hottest month on record. Wine, our ‘canary in the coal mine’, is warning us that unless temperatures are brought under control, the flavours we have long enjoyed may soon become a distant memory.
Shi Yafeng et al. “Characteristics and Trends of the Shift from Warm-Dry to Warm-Humid Climates in Northwest China.” Quaternary Sciences 23.2 (2003): 13.
Wang Jing et al. “Response of Agricultural Climate Resources for Wine Grapes in the Yinchuan Area at the Eastern Foot of the Helan Mountains to Climate Change.” Chinese Journal of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning 38.09 (2017): 122–129.
Li Yuding et al. “Impacts of Climate Change on Wine Grapes at the Eastern Foot of the Helan Mountains and Mitigation Measures.” China Vine & Wine .01 (2019): 38–40+43. doi:10.13414/j.cnki.zwpp.2019.01.009.
Li Yuding et al. “Reflections on the Sustainable Development of Wine Grape Cultivation in Ningxia.” China Vine & Wine .02 (2019): 99–102. doi:10.13414/j.cnki.zwpp.2019.02.022.
Will a Warming Climate Turn the Northwest Deserts into Oases?, Zhi Shì Fèn Zǐ (The Intellectual), https://zhishifenzi.blog.caixin.com/archives/249094
Challenges Facing an Eco-Farm Amidst a Warmer and Wetter Northwest, China Dialogue, https://chinadialogue.net/zh/5/99486/
Meet the ‘new’ Bordeaux wine grapes, Decanter, https://www.decanter.com/learn/new-bordeaux-grapes-wines-420290/
Morales-Castilla, Ignacio, et al. “Diversity buffers winegrowing regions from climate change losses.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117.6 (2020): 2864–2869.
How Climate Change Is Affecting France’s Wine Industry | Time, https://time.com/5777459/france-wine-climate-change/
Editor: 王昊