Hottest summer, bleakest lychee season: How farmers face a record-low harvest

I. Devastating Yield Loss: The ‘Super Lean Year’ for Lychees

Conghua District in Guangzhou is one of the primary lychee-producing regions in Guangdong. July is the peak harvest season, but some sights that were once commonplace are vanishing. Where branches used to bow under the weight of fruit, there are now only lush green leaves; only upon closer inspection can a few scattered red berries be found on a handful of trees. The stalls that usually line the roadsides selling lychees have also disappeared.

● Early July: The state of the lychee trees in Yinlin Village.

“Last year, we couldn’t even pick them all in time. Some of those on the mountain were left behind, and thousands of jin just rotted on the trees.” Hu-jie and her family are native fruit farmers from Yinlin Village in Taiping Town, Conghua, where they tend to over four hundred lychee trees. Since 2018, Hu-jie and her husband have also kept bees. Even though most of their attention is now on the bees and the orchards receive less care, they still harvested over 8,000 jin of lychees last year.

This year, however, “there isn’t even 100 jin; there’s simply nothing to sell,” Hu-jie says. The quality of those few remaining lychees is also disappointing; she picked the best-looking ones to give to relatives and friends, leaving the rest for her own family. “Some wholesalers have called to place orders, but I can only explain to them that there really are no lychees this year.”

● The lychee harvest at Hu-jie’s home last year, photo provided by Hu-jie.

Yinlin Village in Taiping Town, Conghua, is flat and has seen large-scale lychee cultivation since the 1980s. This year, a predicted collapse in yield has swept through the entire village.

“It’s not just my orchard; every household in the village has seen a massive drop. This is the general situation—what can you do? We farmers are at the mercy of the weather; there’s no way around it.” Standing in her orchard, Hu-jie spreads her hands in a gesture of helplessness, accepting the reality of a near-total crop failure.

Not far away, Hu-jie’s husband is leading an experiential activity at the apiary, explaining honey production to visiting consumers. “In previous years at this time, who would have time for this? We’d be up at 5 am picking lychees, and we wouldn’t stop until dark.”

At the Pengcheng Ecological Farm to the east of Yinlin Village, the situation is even worse than Hu-jie’s.

Out of the two hundred lychee trees across the farm’s 20-mu orchard, they “picked just a dozen or so lychees, and that was it.” This year’s lychee crop at the Pengcheng farm is almost a total loss.

When the lychees ripened last year, Pengcheng and his partner, Hua Hua, were so overwhelmed they invited fellow villagers to help with the picking. “Last year wasn’t exactly a bumper crop, but we harvested over 800 jin. At 30 yuan a jin, that brought in over 24,000 yuan.” Looking further back, the farm harvested nearly 3,000 jin of lychees in 2022, earning over 50,000 yuan.

● The scene at the Pengcheng Ecological Farm lychee orchard in July this year.

According to Pengcheng, two other ecological farms in Guangdong also suffered complete crop failures. Whether through conventional or ecological farming, orchards of all sizes have faced devastating losses.

“In previous years, picking 100 jin of lychees took an hour; now it takes three.” Witnessing the low fruiting rate and inconsistent quality, Mr Luo of the Mincheng Planting Professional Cooperative in Yinlin Village is pessimistic about this year’s yield. “Conghua lychees are down by at least 80% this year.”

Mincheng Cooperative’s core business is the processing of dried lychees, while also acting as a sales agent for fresh fruit. Their raw materials come from their own 600-mu orchard and purchases from other farmers. However, the orchard’s own harvest this year was only 6,000 jin (down from 60,000 jin last year—a 90% drop). Including lychees bought from farmers, the total was around 50,000 jin. Even with Mincheng’s superior production and sales capacity compared to smallholders, the yield has still dropped by 70% compared to last year’s total of 170,000 jin. Mr Luo admitted, “With low yields and high procurement prices this year, making dried lychees simply isn’t profitable.”

● Yield data gathered during interviews on 7 July. Due to differences in orchard management, lychee varieties, and the number of trees, yields vary between farmers; overall, however, the reduction in yield generally exceeds 80%.

Two months ago, the National Lychee and Longan Industrial Technology System predicted that national lychee production in 2024 would drop by more than 50%. The data indicated that “by variety, mid-to-late ripening varieties such as Heiye, Huaizhi, Guiwei, Nuomici, and Jizui are expected to see reductions of 60% to 80%.”

Conghua is a concentrated production area for these mid-to-late ripening varieties. According to official data, Conghua has 300,000 mu of lychee plantations, accounting for 7.3% of Guangdong Province and 52.1% of Guangzhou. The ripening period is concentrated from late June to early August, making it the latest ripening region in Guangdong, contributing over 40% of the city’s annual yield. Official figures show that Conghua’s estimated lychee production this year is approximately 31,000 tonnes, compared to 60,000 tonnes last year.

II. Surging Prices, yet Farmers Still ‘Work a Year for Nothing’

The precipitous drop in yield has driven market prices up three to five times.

At 6:40 am at the Shengang lychee temporary trading centre, farmers from surrounding villages arrive one after another on motorbikes laden with lychees. This is a central trading point for the Conghua District.

● 7 July: The Shengang lychee temporary trading centre in Conghua.

“How much?” “10 yuan.” The exchange between buyer and seller is brief and efficient. Farmers park their motorbikes to the side, and buyers pull the baskets they are interested in off the bikes, reaching in to inspect the fruit at the bottom.

“8 yuan.” “No way, 9 at least.” Over a difference of a single yuan, the two parties haggle for nearly ten minutes. The farmer refuses to budge, and the buyer almost walks away, but eventually returns to buy two baskets of “Jinggang Red” (a Conghua-bred variety of Nuomici) at 9 yuan per jin.

Farmers continue to ride in on motorbikes with one or two baskets of lychees, finding a patch of empty ground to park and wait for buyers to come and pick. Even in the early morning, the July sun in Guangzhou is scorching, leaving both buyers and farmers drenched in sweat. An hour passes, and many farmers’ lychees remain unsold. “In the past, they’d be snapped up the moment we arrived.”

● The Shengang Lychee Temporary Trading Centre is a vital hub for lychee trade in Conghua.

Due to widespread yield reductions, early-season varieties hitting the market in May reached prices of over 100 yuan per jin, shocking consumers. By early July, retail prices had gradually receded. “In mid-to-late June, the wholesale price for my Guiwei lychees hit 70 or 80 yuan per jin; now it’s down to 20 or 30,” said a young man helping his parents sell their fruit. His family’s harvest was finished; today was the last basket.

In early July, at the Shengang Lychee Temporary Trading Centre, high-quality Nuomici fetched wholesale prices of over 20 yuan per jin, while average ones ranged between 10 and 20 yuan. Guiwei prices were higher; although the fruits were generally smaller, wholesale prices remained between 20 and 35 yuan. These two market favourites were rare on-site. The most common were the local traditional variety, Huaizhi, and the newer “Jinggang Hong” developed years ago, which fetched between 5 and 15 yuan per jin depending on quality.

These prices are far higher than in previous years. Ms Hu from Yinlin Village and Mr Lo, the owner of Mincheng, both noted that last year, Huaizhi retailed for only two or three yuan per jin; at current prices, it is nearly impossible to source stock.

Despite the lower yields, there was no shortage of supply. “You probably saw it in Shengang—farmers’ lychees sat there for ages without anyone buying them. Same for me; I bought stock from farmers this morning, but by 3 or 4 pm, it still hadn’t sold,” said Mr Lo, who has staff monitoring market trends.

● The quality of lychees at the trading centre.

But even with the sharp price increases, it is difficult to compensate for the losses caused by the reduced yield; many lychee farmers have essentially worked for nothing this year.

Last year, Ms Hu’s harvest of over 8,000 jin sold for more than 80,000 yuan. In previous years, regardless of whether it was an “on-year” or “off-year”, her income from lychees generally stayed above 50,000 yuan. This year, however, a harvest of just 100 jin failed to even cover the cost of agricultural inputs.

Mr Li, a local ride-hailing driver, grows over 60 lychee trees. With careful tending, he harvested over 5,000 jin last year, earning over 40,000 yuan. This year, after picking everything, he harvested only about 300 jin, selling them for a total of over 10,000 yuan. After deducting over 4,000 yuan for pesticides and fertilisers, he was left with 6,000 yuan.

“Many of those growing lychees now are elderly people over fifty. Relying on 30,000 or 40,000 yuan a year from lychees makes life in the countryside viable. But this year, that’s gone. Many in our village haven’t even made back the cost of their pesticides and fertilisers,” Mr Li lamented. “As farmers, we are at the mercy of the weather.”

III. Climate Crisis: What is the Way Forward for Ecological Farming?

In the first half of the year, rain fell in Guangzhou from before the Qingming Festival until late June. According to meteorological data, between 17 April and 7 June, there were only seven days without precipitation over a 52-day period. In Conghua, rainfall in April reached 923.6mm, 301% higher than the average for the same period.

● Precipitation distribution during the April-June rainy season in Guangzhou, posted by the Weibo account “Guangdong Weather” on 8 June.

Interviewed farmers generally believe that this year’s reduced yield was partly due to it being an “off-year” and partly due to the weather—specifically “too much rain”. This aligns with official statements from Conghua: “Affected by the weather, lychee production in our district has been impacted, with a marked reduction during this off-year.”

“Lychees do have on and off-years, but I don’t think that’s the case this year,” said Ms Hu, drawing on her years of experience. “Lychees need specific climatic conditions to grow. Last winter in Guangdong wasn’t cold enough, so after the autumn flush, the flower buds didn’t emerge. Then it rained incessantly. If it hadn’t rained so much, I believe my orchard would have yielded around 1,000 jin, not less than 100. But because of the constant rain, the fruit turned yellow once it reached the size of a finger, and then there was massive fruit drop.”

● May: Early fruiting stage of lychees coinciding with the rainy season in Guangzhou. Photo provided by Mr Lo of Mincheng.

Lychee growth is divided into three stages: the shoot growth stage, the low-temperature induction stage, and the flowering and fruit-set stage. During the low-temperature induction stage, temperatures below 10°C are required for more than 180 hours in winter to trigger the tree’s reproductive growth and ensure a normal flowering rate. However, starting last winter, Guangzhou suffered a series of warm winters, late spring frosts, and continuous rainfall, which dealt a fatal blow to the latter two stages of growth.

Back in spring, Pengcheng already sensed that this year’s lychees would face a drastic reduction. “When nature decides not to give, it simply doesn’t; there is no point talking about losses.” Though his lychee income was zero, he did not dwell on the “total crop failure”. “This year’s reduction is largely related to the climate, but partly due to cultivation management. With proper management, the impact of climate change can be mitigated to some extent.”

Pengcheng has set about adjusting the shape of his lychee trees. “Generally, we consider plant growth to move in two directions: vegetative growth and reproductive growth. Lychee trees typically have a rounded canopy, and I realised this makes them prone to excessive vegetative growth, meaning they grow leaves and branches but fail to flower and fruit.”

“So, I conducted a small experiment.” Pengcheng performed radical pruning on several round-canopy trees. Now, these trees appear somewhat sparse, with only a few vertical branches and some horizontal ones remaining. “I’ve left a leading main stem because its growth is the most vigorous. You see, there is a horizontal branch in every direction, arranged in order of priority; once the primary branches grow high, I’ll pull them down.”

● Lychee trees at Pengcheng’s farm after canopy adjustment.

Adjusting the tree architecture to create a clearer distinction between vegetative and reproductive growth: vertical branches are responsible for vegetative growth, while horizontal branches handle reproductive growth. “This approach has already been proven effective for fruit trees like apples, pears, and cherries; I am not entirely sure if it will work for lychees.”

Before hormones were used in agriculture, the practice of branch pulling was common in conventional lychee cultivation. Following this pruning, the trees will only require branch pulling to maintain their shape, removing the need for further pruning on the same tree. “I still hope to work with nature and reduce interference with the tree’s internal energy.”

In the past, the climate was milder and extreme weather was rare, allowing round-canopy lychee trees to self-regulate their vegetative and reproductive growth. Now, Pengcheng is determined to transition all the farm’s trees to a central-leader architecture, a prospect that has left him excited for some time. “I’ve been doing ecological farming for ten years, but looking back, I’m still a complete novice.” Yet, Pengcheng feels that this year could be a breakthrough.

This year, Pengcheng planted dozens of new guava seedlings. “Guavas are more resistant to high temperatures and humidity. The current climate has a huge impact on lychees, so the farm needs a more stable source of income.”

IV. Climate and Economy: The Farmer’s Double Dilemma

Crops are the first to react to climate change. The phrase “relying on the heavens for food,” frequently used by farmers, takes on a deeper meaning in the face of the climate crisis, highlighting the precarious dependence of human survival on the natural climate and the hidden threats within it.

Professor Chen Houbin of South China Agricultural University mentioned in a media interview in May that “future lychee management may require every single year to be treated as a ‘small year’ [a low-yield year].”

“Climate change is a global problem, but it is also happening right here beside us. On a personal level, how do we respond to such a vast issue?” With this question in mind, Qiuqiu, a resident of Yinlin Village, organised a Lychee Festival with other new villagers who had moved into the area in recent years. Unlike last year’s celebration of a bountiful harvest, this year’s event was a “Lychee Festival without lychees.”

● A lychee-themed exhibition at the Yinlin Lychee Festival.

● A community dialogue session at the Yinlin Lychee Festival. Photo: Binghuang

Why were there no lychees this year? Climate change became the central focus of this year’s Lychee Festival. During a community dialogue, Sister Juan, a senior engineer from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau, shared the changes and trends in Guangdong’s climate over the past 20 years. “My colleagues have compiled statistics showing that since 2000, the number of high-temperature days in Guangzhou has increased significantly, and extreme precipitation has become increasingly prominent.”

Two days later, the Conghua District Government also held a Lychee Festival in Taiping Town. Unlike the initiative taken by the new residents of Yinlin Village, the primary goal of this festival was to attract investment, generate momentum for Conghua lychees, and secure sales channels.

On one side was a grassroots Lychee Festival, hoping more people would understand the specific impacts that macro-climate change has on lychee production; on the other was a government-led festival focused on commercial outlets. Falling yields and sluggish sales—production on one side, marketing on the other—perfectly illustrate the genuine predicament facing lychee farmers this year.

– History of Lychee Cultivation in Conghua –

◉ Before 1949, the total lychee planting area in Conghua was over 10,000 mu, serving as one of the primary sources of income for local farmers;

◉ In 1978, a planting boom emerged in rural Conghua. By November 1981, the planting area had grown to 22,000 mu, and Conghua was designated as one of the seven key lychee-producing counties in China;

◉ In 1996, the planting area increased to 109,000 mu, and the Ministry of Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries of the State Council approved Conghua as a lychee production base (city/county);

◉ In 2004, the planting area grew to 236,700 mu;

◉ Today, the lychee planting area in Conghua is approximately 300,000 mu, with nearly 40 varieties and over 300,000 lychee farmers across the district.

References

Lychee Data:

1. National Lychee and Longan Industry Technology R&D Centre: “Analysis of National Lychee Production Trends and Management Recommendations for 2024”

http://www.farmchina.org.cn/controlpanel/eWebEditor/uploadfile/file/20240618/20240618020739_45914.pdf

2. China Newsweek: “This Year’s Lychees: We’ll Be Lucky if There’s Anything to Eat”

https://www.inewsweek.cn/finance/2024-05-20/22053.shtml

3. Conghua District Convergence Media Centre: “Conghua District Holds 2024 Guangzhou Lychee Marketing Promotion Event and Launch Ceremony of the Conghua Lychee Festival”

https://www.gz.gov.cn/ysgz/xwdt/ysdt/tpxw/content/post_9726645.html

4. Conghua District Convergence Media Centre: “2024 Guangzhou Conghua Lychee Festival | Using Lychees as a Medium to Help the ‘Hundred, Thousand, and Ten Thousand Project’ Achieve Fruitful Industrial Investment Attraction”

http://www.conghua.gov.cn/ztzlbqwgcchfc/content/post_9749744.html

5. Guangzhou Conghua Release: “Calling All Lychee Lovers! Follow This Map to Encounter ‘Exquisite Lychees’ in Conghua”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pyxVKq6NME4Pg7n4lUfBdA

6. Guangzhou Conghua Release: “Conghua’s Lychee Culture is Profound; Come Listen to Its Story”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/M1CEwitc9OjNylnxBA6Skg

7. WeChat Public Account ‘Yinlin Ecological Life’: “Where Have the Lychees Gone? | 6–7 July: The Yinlin Lychee Festival Awaits You”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DcbrvupPBbpLmy91i-5Vtg

Meteorological Data:

Nanfang Daily: “Only 7 Rain-Free Days in 52 Days in Guangzhou! When Will the Sunshine ‘Return to Work’?”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ePtppzrFUJrEjpTbP48ngw

Guangzhou Agricultural Meteorology Monthly Report, November 2023

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lmnuWWFRb84VOGpRVaydWQ