Hottest Summer, Coldest Lychee Season: How Growers Face a Super Off-Year?

I. Catastrophic Harvest Collapse: Lychees Face a ‘Super Lean Year’

Conghua District in Guangzhou is one of Guangdong’s main lychee-growing regions. July is normally the peak of the local harvest, yet familiar sights are disappearing. Branches that once bowed under heavy fruiting are now just lush with green leaves; you have to lean in to spot the odd sparse red fruit on a handful of trees. The usual roadside lychee stalls have also vanished.

● Early July, lychee trees bearing fruit in Yinlin Village.

“We couldn’t pick last year’s lychees fast enough. There were so many on the hills we couldn’t get to them in time, and thousands of jin were left to rot on the branches.” The Hu family are born-and-bred local growers in Yinlin Village, Taiping Town, Conghua, and tend to more than 400 lychee trees. Sister Hu and her husband started beekeeping in 2018. Even though they devote most of their attention to the bees and give the orchard relatively little care, they still brought in over 8,000 jin of lychees last year.

This year, however, “We haven’t even got 100 jin. There’s simply nothing to sell,” Sister Hu says. The quality of this meagre hundred-jin haul is also disappointing. She set aside the best-looking ones for relatives and friends, keeping the rest for her own household. “Some buyers have been phoning to place orders, but I just have to tell them there really aren’t any lychees this year.”

● The sight of lychees hanging on the trees at Sister Hu’s farm last year. Image courtesy of Sister Hu.

Yinlin Village in Taiping Town, Conghua, features relatively flat terrain and has seen extensive lychee cultivation since the 1980s. This year, a long-foreseen decline in harvest swept through the entire village.

“It’s not just my orchard; every household in our village is facing a severe drop in yield. When the overall situation is like this, what can you do? We farmers live at the mercy of the weather. There’s simply no other way,” says Sister Hu. Standing in her lychee grove, she throws up her hands in resignation, coming to terms with the reality that large sections of her trees have borne virtually no fruit.

Not far away, Sister Hu’s husband is hosting an experience session at the apiary, explaining honey production to visiting customers. “In previous years, how could we possibly find time for activities like this at this time of year? We had to be up at 5 a.m. to pick lychees, working straight through until dusk.”

The situation is even more dire at Pengcheng Eco-Farm, located to the east of Yinlin Village.

Pengcheng’s 20-mu orchard contains over two hundred lychee trees, yet “we only picked a dozen or so fruits, and that was it.” The harvest this year has amounted to virtually nothing.

When the lychees ripened last year, Pengcheng and his partner, Huahua, were so swamped that they invited fellow villagers to help with the picking. “Last year hardly counted as a bumper harvest. We managed just over 800 jin in total. At 30 yuan a jin, that brought in a little over 24,000 yuan.” Looking back further, in 2022 the farm harvested nearly 3,000 jin of lychees, generating more than 50,000 yuan in revenue.

● The state of the lychee grove at Pengcheng Eco-Farm in July this year.

As far as Pengcheng is aware, two other eco-farms in Guangdong growing lychees have also seen complete crop failure. Whether employing conventional or ecological farming methods, orchards of all sizes across the region are grappling with drastic yield declines.

“In past years, we could pick 100 jin of lychees in an hour; now it takes three,” says Mr Luo of the Mincheng Fruit Production Professional Cooperative in Yinlin Village. Observing the low fruiting rates and inconsistent quality, he is pessimistic about this year’s output. “Conghua’s lychee harvest is down by at least 80 percent compared to usual.”

The cooperative’s core business involves processing dried lychees and acting as a sales agent for fresh fruit from local farmers. Its raw materials come from a 600-mu estate and purchases from growers. However, this year’s estate harvest yielded just over 6,000 jin (compared with 60,000 jin last year, a 90 percent drop). Including lychees bought from farmers, the total comes to roughly 50,000 jin. Even though Mincheng is better equipped than smallholders to manage production and sales, this represents a 70 percent decline from last year’s total of 170,000 jin. Mr Luo admits candidly, “With such low yields and high procurement prices this year, processing dried lychees simply isn’t economically viable.”

● Yield data gathered during interviews on 7 July. Due to variations in orchard management practices, lychee cultivars, and tree counts, output differs significantly between farms. Overall, however, yield reductions generally exceed 80 percent across the board.

As early as two months ago, the National Lychee and Longan Industry Technology System forecast that national lychee production in 2024 would fall by more than half. According to the projections, “by variety, mid- and late-season cultivars such as Heiye, Huaizhi, Guiwei, Nuomici and Jizhouli are expected to see yields drop by 60 to 80 per cent.”

Conghua district is precisely the heartland for these mid- and late-maturing varieties. According to official figures, the area is home to 300,000 *mu* of lychee orchards, accounting for 7.3 per cent of Guangdong Province’s total and 52.1 per cent of Guangzhou City’s. The harvest window runs from late June to early August each year, making it Guangdong’s latest-maturing lychee region and responsible for just over 40 per cent of the city’s annual output. Official forecasts put Conghua’s yield for this year at around 31,000 tonnes, a stark drop from the 60,000 tonnes recorded last year.

II. Prices Soar, Yet Farmers Still “See a Year’s Work Go for Nothing”

The precipitous drop in yields has sent market prices for lychees up three to five times.

By 6.40 am, the temporary lychee trading centre at Shengang is beginning to bustle. Farmers from the surrounding villages arrive one after another, riding motorbikes laden with fruit. The site serves as one of Conghua’s primary collection and trading hubs.

● 7 July, the temporary lychee trading centre at Shengang, Conghua.

“How much?” “Ten yuan.” The exchanges between buyer and seller are brisk and direct. A farmer parks their motorbike to one side while a purchaser pulls down the basket of lychees they’ve set their sights on, burying both hands in the crate to feel for the fruit pressed beneath the top layer.

“Eight yuan,” comes the offer. “No good, nine at the very least,” the farmer replies. Over a single yuan’s difference, the two go back and forth for nearly ten minutes. The farmer holds firm. The buyer walks away once, only to return shortly after, agreeing to pay nine yuan per *jin* for the farmer’s two crates of ‘Jingganghong’ – a Conghua-bred cultivar and a subtype of Nuomici.

A steady stream of farmers continues to trickle in on their motorbikes, each carrying a couple of crates. They claim a patch of open ground, set up, and wait for buyers to come and select their fruit. Even in the early morning, the July sun in Guangzhou feels like an open oven; buyers and growers alike stand soaked in sweat. An hour passes, and many crates remain unsold. “In the past, they’d be snapped up the moment we pulled up,” one notes.

● The Shengang Lychee Temporary Trading Centre is a major lychee trading venue in Conghua.

Due to a widespread crop shortfall, the early-maturing varieties that hit the market in May initially left consumers astounded, fetching over 100 yuan a jin. By early July, retail prices had begun to cool. “Back in mid-to-late June, the buying price for my family’s Guiwei lychees was 70 to 80 yuan a jin. It’s come down now to between 20 and 30,” said a young man at the trading centre helping his parents sell their harvest. His family’s crop is all gathered; today marks the final basket.

In early July at the Shengang trading centre, top-grade Nuomici lychees commanded a buying price of over 20 yuan a jin, while average-quality fruit traded between 10 and 20 yuan. Guiwei fetched a higher price; despite the fruit generally being undersized, the buying price still ranged from 20 to 35 yuan a jin. These two market favourites were scarce at the venue. The floor was instead dominated by the local heritage variety Huaizhi and the newer Jingganghong cultivar, bred in earlier years, with buying prices between 5 and 15 yuan a jin depending on grade.

These prices sit well above historical norms. Both Sister Hu from Yinlin Village and Mr Luo, owner of Mincheng, noted that retail Huaizhi cost just two or three yuan a jin last year; at current rates, securing stock is out of the question.

Yet, despite the reduced harvest, a supply shortage has failed to materialise. “You’ve likely seen it for yourself in Shengang: farmers’ lychees have been sitting on the floor for hours with no buyers. It’s the same with mine—I took on a load from growers this morning, and by mid-afternoon, it still hadn’t moved.” Mr Luo has assigned a dedicated person to monitor market trends.

●Appearance of the lychees at the trading centre.

Yet even with prices rising sharply, the losses from the reduced yield are impossible to offset. For many lychee growers, it has been a year of wasted effort.

Sister Hu’s family sold over 8,000 jin of lychees last year, bringing in more than 80,000 yuan. In previous years, regardless of whether it was a bumper or off year, income from lychee sales typically remained above 50,000 yuan. This year, however, a meagre harvest of just 100 jin hasn’t even covered the cost of agricultural supplies.

Mr Li, a local ride-hailing driver, tends to over 60 lychee trees on his property with careful attention each year. Last year, he harvested more than 5,000 jin, selling them for over 40,000 yuan. This year, after picking every last fruit, he managed only about 300 jin, fetching just over 10,000 yuan. Once he deducts the 4,000 yuan spent on pesticides and fertiliser, he’s left with a mere 6,000 yuan.

“Most of the people growing lychees nowadays are farmers over fifty. With an annual income of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan from the crop, they can make a decent living in the countryside. But all that’s gone this year. Many in our village haven’t even recouped the cost of pesticides and fertiliser,” Mr Li sighed. “As farmers, our livelihood simply depends on the weather.”

III. What Role for Ecological Farming Amid the Climate Crisis?

In the first half of the year, rain in Guangzhou persisted from before the Qingming Festival until mid-to-late June. According to meteorological authorities, between 17 April and 7 June, there were only seven days without rain out of 52. During that period, Conghua District recorded April rainfall of 923.6 mm, which is 301% above the long-term average for the same period.

● Precipitation distribution during Guangzhou’s April–June rainy season, published by the Weibo account “Guangdong Weather” on 8 June.

Interviewed growers widely attribute this year’s reduced lychee harvest to two factors: the crop’s natural low-yield year, and adverse weather, specifically “excessive rainfall”. This aligns closely with the official statement from Conghua district: “Affected by weather conditions, this year’s lychee production in our area has been impacted, with a noticeable drop in yield during this low-production year.”

“Lychee trees naturally alternate between high and low yield years, but I don’t believe that’s what we’re seeing now.” Drawing on years of farming experience, Ms Hu offers her own assessment: “For lychees to develop properly, they require specific climatic conditions. Last winter in Guangdong simply wasn’t cold enough, which meant the trees couldn’t form flower buds following the autumn flush. Then the rain just kept falling. If not for the heavy rainfall, I’m certain my orchard would still have yielded around 500 kg, rather than falling short of 50 kg. But with the relentless downpour, the fruit turned yellow as soon as it reached finger-size, followed by a massive fruit drop.”

● Lychee trees in early fruiting stage in May, caught in Guangzhou’s rainy season. Photo courtesy of Mr Luo from Mincheng.

The development of lychee trees proceeds through three stages: vegetative shoot growth, low-temperature induction, and flowering and fruit set. During the low-temperature induction phase, the trees require more than 180 hours of winter temperatures falling below 10°C to trigger reproductive growth and achieve a normal flowering rate. However, since last winter, Guangzhou has endured a succession of unseasonably warm winters, late-spring cold snaps, and persistent rainfall, delivering a severe blow to the latter two stages of lychee development.

As early as spring, Peng Cheng had already foreseen that this year’s lychee harvest would suffer a drastic shortfall. “When nature won’t grant a harvest, it simply won’t. There’s little point dwelling on the loss.” With lychee earnings reduced to zero, he was in no mood to linger on the complete crop failure. “This year’s shortfall is largely down to the climate, though cultivation management plays a part too. With proper management, we could perhaps mitigate some of the impacts of climate change to a certain extent.”

Peng Cheng set about restructuring the shape of the lychee trees. “Typically, we consider plant development to follow two pathways: vegetative and reproductive growth. Lychee trees naturally form a broad, rounded canopy. I realised this shape readily encourages excessive vegetative growth, causing the trees to focus on expanding their foliage rather than flowering and fruiting.”

“So I ran a small experiment.” Peng Cheng carried out radical pruning on several of the rounded trees. Now, they look rather bare, retaining only a few vertical shoots and some horizontal branches. “The idea is to keep a single central leader, since it possesses the strongest vigour. As you can see, there’s a horizontal branch extending in each direction, arranged with a clear hierarchy. Once the primary branches grow tall enough, we’ll train them downwards.”

● Peng Cheng Farm: lychee trees following canopy restructuring.

Adjusting the tree architecture to clearly separate vegetative from reproductive growth—vertical branches support vegetative growth, while horizontal branches support reproductive growth. “Apple, pear and cherry trees have already proven this is the right approach, but applying it to lychee trees, I’m still not certain it’s correct.”

Long before plant hormones were introduced to fruit farming, branch-pulling was already a standard technique in conventional lychee cultivation. Following this round of pruning, the trees will be shaped simply by training the branches, sparing them from further cuts. “I still hope to work with nature, minimising interference with the tree’s natural vitality.”

In the past, when the climate was milder and extremes rare, bush-shaped lychee trees could naturally balance vegetative and reproductive growth. Now, the farm is decisively transitioning all its trees to a central-leader form. Pengcheng was buoyed by this shift for quite some time. “I’ve been practising ecological agriculture for ten years, yet looking back, I still feel like a novice.” At the same time, Pengcheng senses this year could mark a genuine breakthrough.

Pengcheng also planted dozens of new guava saplings this year. “Guavas are notably resilient to high heat and humidity. The current climate is having a severe impact on lychees, so the farm needs a more reliable income stream.”

IV. Climate and Economy: The Dual Dilemma Facing Fruit Farmers

Crops are the first to react to climate change. The traditional farmer’s saying about “living at the mercy of the weather” gains a sharper edge against the backdrop of the climate crisis, laying bare the deep reliance of human livelihood on natural weather patterns, alongside the hidden threats it now carries.

During a media interview in May, Professor Chen Houbin of South China Agricultural University noted, “In the future, managing lychee orchards may well mean treating every year as a lean year.”

“Climate change is a global issue, but it is undeniably happening right on our doorstep. When we bring it down to the individual level, how do we respond to such a monumental challenge?” Pondering this question, Qiuqiu—a long-standing ‘new villager’ in Yinlin Village—teamed up with other newcomers who have moved to the village over the years to host a Lychee Festival. Unlike last year’s event, which celebrated a bountiful harvest, this year’s gathering was an “Lychee Festival Without Lychees.”

● Lychee-themed exhibition at the Yinlin Lychee Festival.

● Community dialogue session at the Yinlin Lychee Festival. Photograph by Binghuang.

Why are there no lychees this year? Climate change has become the central focus of this year’s lychee festivals. At a community dialogue, Senior Engineer Sister Juan from the Guangdong Meteorological Bureau shared the climatic shifts and trends Guangdong has experienced over the past two decades. “My colleagues have analysed the data,” she said, “and since 2000, the number of high-temperature days in Guangzhou has risen markedly, while extreme rainfall patterns have grown increasingly prominent.”

Two days later, the Conghua District government hosted its own lychee festival in Taiping Town. Driven by different priorities than the new residents of Yinlin Village, this event was primarily geared towards investment promotion: building momentum for Conghua’s lychee brand and securing reliable sales channels.

While grassroots groups spontaneously organised festivals to help the public grasp how broader climate change directly impacts lychee cultivation, the government’s event focused squarely on commercialising the harvest. Shrinking yields and sluggish sales—the intertwined pressures of production and distribution—lay bare the genuine predicament confronting lychee growers this year.

– A Brief History of Lychee Cultivation in Conghua –

◉ Before 1949, Conghua’s total lychee cultivation area exceeded 10,000 mu, serving as a vital source of income for local farmers;

◉ In 1978, a planting boom swept through Conghua’s rural areas. By November 1981, the cultivation area had expanded to 22,000 mu, earning the district recognition as one of China’s seven key lychee-producing counties;

◉ By 1996, the area under cultivation grew to 109,000 mu, and the State Council’s Ministry of Agriculture and Fisheries officially designated Conghua as a lychee production base;

◉ In 2004, the cultivation area reached 236,700 mu;

◉ Today, Conghua cultivates lychees across approximately 300,000 mu, boasting nearly 40 varieties and supporting over 300,000 lychee farmers throughout the district.

References

Lychee Data:

1. Published by the National Lychee and Longan Industry Technology R&D Centre: “Analysis and Management Recommendations for National Lychee Production in 2024”

http://www.farmchina.org.cn/controlpanel/eWebEditor/uploadfile/file/20240618/20240618020739_45914.pdf

2. *China Newsweek*: “This Year’s Lychees: ‘Just Having Some to Eat is a Good Thing'”

https://www.inewsweek.cn/finance/2024-05-20/22053.shtml

3. Conghua District Media Centre: “Conghua District Hosts 2024 Guangzhou Lychee Marketing Promotion Event and Launch Ceremony for the Conghua Lychee Festival”

https://www.gz.gov.cn/ysgz/xwdt/ysdt/tpxw/content/post_9726645.html

4. Conghua District Media Centre: “2024 Guangzhou Conghua Lychee Festival | ‘Leveraging Lychees as a Bridge’, Boosting Industrial Investment for the Hundreds, Thousands and Ten Thousands Project”

http://www.conghua.gov.cn/ztzlbqwgcchfc/content/post_9749744.html

5. Guangzhou Conghua Official Account: “Lychee Lovers, Look Here! Follow This Map to Discover ‘Premium Lychees’ in Conghua”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pyxVKq6NME4Pg7n4lUfBdA

6. Guangzhou Conghua Official Account: “Conghua’s Lychee Culture Runs Deep: Come Hear Its Story”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/M1CEwitc9OjNylnxBA6Skg

7. WeChat Official Account ‘Yinlin Eco-Life’: “Where Have the Lychees Gone? ▏Join the Yinlin Lychee Festival on 6–7 July”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/DcbrvupPBbpLmy91i-5Vtg

Meteorological Data:

*Nanfang Daily*: “Only Seven Days Without Rain in 52 Days in Guangzhou! When Will the Sun ‘Get Back to Work’?”

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/ePtppzrFUJrEjpTbP48ngw

Guangzhou Agricultural Meteorological Monthly Report, November 2023

https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/lmnuWWFRb84VOGpRVaydWQ