This year is on track to be the hottest on record. Yet at the recently concluded twenty-ninth UN Climate Change Conference, nations continued to dispute funding allocations, repeatedly bringing negotiations to a standstill. The climate finance gap for agriculture, in particular, remains staggering.
So, when we talk about agriculture adapting to climate change, what exactly are we discussing? Associate Professor Liu Juan of the College of Humanities and Development at China Agricultural University has spent years conducting field research in rural areas across the country. Drawing on environmental sociology and political ecology, she examines farmers’ livelihoods and environmental justice. She is also a co-author of the 2023 book Rural Revitalisation from a Farmers’ Perspective. In recent years, she has turned her attention to the intersection of climate change and rural development, seeking to explore what adaptation measures farmers and rural communities actually need. How can we move beyond a narrow, climate-only approach and instead fundamentally strengthen rural climate resilience?
The following is a conversation with Foodthink.
● In November 2024, Liu Juan (second from left) joined the “Agrarian Politics and Development” research team, led by Professor Ye Jingzhong (sixth from right), for a comprehensive field survey in Yixian County, Hebei Province. Image credit: Official WeChat account of the College of Humanities and Development, China Agricultural University.
I. Growing Rice on Cracked Earth
Foodthink: You’ve been conducting field research in rural communities for years. Is there a particular climate change story that has stayed with you?Liu Juan: This summer, we launched a case study project examining farmers’ understanding of and adaptive capacity to climate change, focusing mainly on several sites in Hebei and Chongqing. When we visited Chongqing, it was incredibly hot, with temperatures nearing 40°C under the scorching sun. This was followed by the prolonged, oven-like heatwaves and drought the region is all too familiar with. In fact, Chongqing already faced severe drought conditions in 2022. Back then, the entire Yangtze River basin was grappling with a major dry spell. Land transfer in Chongqing is highly advanced, with more than 90 per cent of agricultural land having changed hands. A tiny minority of farming households still manage small plots. These parcels, being unsuitable for large-scale transfer, were left for them to tend. Because of the drought, the cracked earth could no longer retain moisture. Following the severe dry spell of 2022, these smallholders have largely given up growing rice.
Foodthink: So, who is growing rice now?Liu Juan: It’s the village cooperatives. They are required to meet specific area targets for staple crop cultivation. During our fieldwork this year, we learned that in the spring of 2023, the cooperatives would take advantage of each light rain, using machinery to break up the cracked soil in order to establish a stable, crack-free structure capable of retaining moisture. However, a single pass isn’t enough to seal the fissures properly. They had to keep a close watch on the weather, waiting for the next rainfall or water supply to carry out another round of tilling and repair. Otherwise, even with subsequent rain or irrigation, the fields would still fail to hold water. In regions dominated by mountains and hills, the cost of these operations is prohibitively high. The returns from agricultural produce are unlikely to cover the expenses, making so-called climate response or adaptation an enormously difficult undertaking.
● In April 2024, a severe drought in Yunnan left the rice terraces in Mojiang severely cracked. Image credit: Yunnan Sili Centre
II. The Need for Social Mechanisms to Address the Diverse Impacts of Climate Change
Foodthink: That sounds rather alarming. Judging by your research in other regions of the country, how widespread is this phenomenon?Liu Juan: Climate change is not a uniform phenomenon; it unfolds in different directions and its impacts take various forms across regions. For our research, we selected three case studies in a Hebei county to observe how different cropping systems and farming households vary in their adaptation strategies. A comprehensive report is due out in April next year.
The county sits close to Beijing. One of our case sites is a village we had visited years ago during a separate research project. It is a highly typical traditional farming community. Most of its working-age population has migrated for employment, leaving behind a demographic predominantly made up of the elderly. The village also underwent the national poverty alleviation campaign. Since then, we have assigned a postgraduate researcher to live in the village each year. While supporting local initiatives, they also carry out fieldwork, and all have produced excellent theses.
When the “31 July” floods struck last year, one of these researchers was in the village. He experienced the entire sequence of events firsthand: from early warnings and hazard clearance to evacuation, temporary resettlement, and post-disaster reconstruction. In the aftermath, the authorities rolled out a series of top-down directives, including requirements for the village to designate and clearly mark specific evacuation shelters. However, these measures were clearly geared solely toward flooding, with little consideration yet for broader uncertainties and the multifaceted risks posed by climate change. During a recent visit, we found that both the Agriculture and Rural Affairs Bureau and the Water Resources Bureau had distributed separate disaster prevention booklets. Although the covers were different colours, the contents inside were virtually identical.
● Following the floods, bridges along the river channels were severely damaged.Foodthink: Beyond government efforts, can other civil society actors play a role in tackling climate change?Liu Juan: Yes, this is also one of the reasons why I focus on social organisations. I am not referring to specific institutional bodies, but rather to how we can build social mechanisms to tackle climate change. At a societal level, how exactly ought we to respond? Beyond plans for dealing with flash floods or preventing dam breaches, we may need a more comprehensive approach—a full set of social mechanisms—since the impacts of climate change are not limited to a single type.
For instance, following the heavy rains on 31 July, the flooding’s impact on this village was primarily damage to roads and bridges. Because the crops are mainly planted on slopes, the most that happened was a small patch of land collapsing, so the losses were relatively contained. This differs from lowland areas, where standing water completely inundates the fields. In contrast, in early August this year, the village suffered a windstorm. The maize was not yet fully ripe, and over half of the crop was blown over. Much of it rotted in the ground, making it nearly impossible for people to enter the fields, which caused considerable damage. Agricultural insurance had been available in the previous two years, but because farmers found it practically useless and struggled to secure compensation, virtually no one enrolled this year.
● Maize flattened by the windstorm.In another township, we found that farmers grow waxy corn for export to South Korea. Because the harvest takes place earlier, the crops were completely unaffected. This may also be due to their geographical location; the winds were not as severe, so even the unharvested crops escaped similar damage. Nevertheless, the uptake of agricultural insurance in this township has actually risen significantly compared with the previous two years. Every community has its own micro-environment, which shapes how it adapts to climate change.
How can social organisations contribute to rural climate adaptation? Foodthink is currently conducting a nationwide survey among NGOs. We invite you to click here to complete the questionnaire for Research on the Action Pathways of Chinese Rural Social Organisations in Adapting to Climate Change, helping to advance rural climate action.
Foodthink: This location-specific variation is not limited to communities alone; at the individual level, a farmer’s production methods and livelihood strategies will also determine their respective climate resilience.Liu Juan: That’s right. But overall, whether at the level of individual farming households or entire villages, the rural community’s capacity to independently adapt to climate change is extremely limited.
We have another graduate student who spent half a year stationed in a village researching transport and infrastructure. The heavy rains on 31 July last year severely damaged many roads and bridges in that village. However, with virtually no collective economy to draw upon, the village has relied mainly on post-disaster reconstruction projects from authorities like the Water Resources Bureau to repair the damage.
We also interviewed a farmer running an eco-agricultural park. Flooding in 2021 destroyed several greenhouses used for growing strawberries and melons. He raised funds to rebuild them in 2022, only for an even heavier flood to strike the following summer, leaving him unwilling to repair them again. In his own words: “What if another massive flood comes and washes them away again? Unless the heavens can tell me which days it will rain and which it won’t, or at least when the rain will come.” A rare snow disaster in the winter of 2023 also crushed some of the park’s structures, which remain unrepaired to this day. So scaling up operations and investing in fixed infrastructure are not necessarily the ideal solutions for mitigating climate risks.
● Visible in the top right of the image are the damaged greenhouse facilities that the farmer was too hesitant to rebuild.Foodthink: So do smallholder farmers without such large infrastructure investments suffer fewer losses?Liu Juan: It is not so straightforward. In our view, farm households lack particularly effective solutions; they all tend to weigh inputs against returns. Take the traditional farming village mentioned earlier. They have newly levelled plots on the hillsides, complete with installed water pipes and storage tanks. Yet farmers hardly ever use them, even during spring droughts that delay sowing. If a single household opens the valve, there is no telling when the water will actually arrive, and the water and electricity costs are prohibitive. Consequently, they would rather wait until later to plant, accepting at most a modest reduction in yield.
For experienced smallholders, depending on the weather for the harvest is not a passive reaction but a strategy of minimising inputs. They may glance at the weather forecast and take whatever minor precautions they can. But when a genuine disaster strikes, they may choose to do nothing at all, given the high costs and uncertain effectiveness.
Some farmers switch crops. This village has done so in the past, shifting from irrigated wheat to more drought-tolerant varieties such as maize, peanuts, and sweet potatoes. Overall, however, climate change is not the sole driver of this shift; the outflow of labour may well be a contributing factor.
While the numerous shifts in planting patterns we observe today undoubtedly bear the imprint of climate change, it is rarely the direct or primary cause. Our research for the book *Rural Revitalisation from Farmers’ Perspectives* revealed that farmers identify a shortage of labour as the primary constraint on agricultural production, followed by natural disasters.
● Drawing on fieldwork across ten villages in five provinces, the ‘Agricultural Policy and Development’ research team at China Agricultural University’s College of Humanities and Development Studies, where Liu Juan is based, published *Rural Revitalisation from Farmers’ Perspectives* (two volumes) in 2023.
III. Labour Shortages and the Economics of Farming
Foodthink: In the wake of rural hollowing-out, if a household’s income relies chiefly on younger members working in cities, then for the older generation, every bit of labour saved counts. Cutting back on inputs is far more important to them than adopting climate adaptation measures that sound so sophisticated.
Liu Juan: Older farmers can scatter seeds at a leisurely pace, harvest peanuts and sweet potatoes in autumn, or plant some fruits and dry fruits. Without the pressure of rushed planting and harvesting, all of this serves as an adaptation to the current labour structure.
Foodthink: You mentioned earlier that following land transfer in Chongqing, smallholder farmers stopped growing rice due to drought. So what are they growing instead?
Liu Juan: Smallholder farmers who continue to work the land are generally of advanced age and simply lack the capacity to use machinery to break up the soil and harrow it repeatedly to create a stable water-retention system suitable for rice cultivation, as cooperatives can. It is highly likely they will simply switch to drought-resistant crops such as maize.
● Chongqing farmers carrying out their autumn harvest under the scorching sun.Foodthink: With mechanical operating costs for cooperatives running so high, who ultimately bears the burden?Liu Juan: Running a cooperative or a joint-stock cooperative is under considerable strain. Land transfer models involve rent payments and the like. Fortunately, some villages have avoided the transfer approach in favour of land trusteeship, which focuses on having someone tend the land to prevent it from lying fallow, provided crops are sown. Farmers who adopt this mindset are less insistent on rent, easing the cooperative’s financial burden. Without this arrangement, a hit from extreme weather would drive cooperatives into unimaginable deficits.
Our earlier fieldwork in Guangxi and Yunnan revealed that many regions grow cash crops—such as bananas and dragon fruit—often relying on monoculture, which takes a toll on the soil. Consequently, land rent is unavoidable regardless of who takes on the contract. Back then, fruit cultivation remained fairly lucrative; even with setbacks like typhoons, profits could be recouped over a few years. Grain crops, however, simply lack that kind of margin.
Foodthink: Exactly. When examining how climate change affects farmers, we must weigh multiple dimensions: not only the scale of cultivation but also crop types, the strength of policy support, and farmers’ livelihood strategies. So, how does the academic community assess climate change impacts and adaptation strategies when confronted with these stark, intractable bottlenecks in rural development?
Liu Juan: Within China’s academic circles, research that genuinely bridges climate change and rural development transformation remains scarce. Studies examining agriculture in isolation are perhaps more common in recent years. Yet the countryside is undergoing profound transformation. In my course, Introduction to Rural Revitalisation, I dedicate an entire chapter to contemporary China’s villages (the 2020s). I do this because I sometimes notice students portraying a Chinese countryside that still resembles the villages of a bygone centuryFrom the Soil. It’s as if this framing has become second nature in their analysis. Yet today’s rural reality has, in fact, transformed out of all recognition.
IV. The Climate Is Changing, and So Is the Countryside
Foodthink: If you were to distil today’s dramatically transformed countryside into a few keywords, how would you sum it up?Liu Juan: Agriculture, the countryside, and farming communities offer three distinct threads for unpacking the transformation of agrarian governance.
Viewed through a demographic lens, for instance, two clear trends emerge: an ageing population and widespread rural-to-urban migration. On a macro scale, we once spoke of 900 million rural farmers; today, the permanent rural population stands at just under 500 million. This is a seismic shift. Yet much of the research appears to overlook this profound demographic restructuring. We have yet to adequately examine what is actually unfolding beneath the surface.
When we turn to those who actually till the land, critical questions arise: Who is farming now? Who remains willing to farm? And who is actually capable of doing so? The very identity of the ‘farmer’ has shifted considerably. What remains constant is that the people working the soil are largely the same cohort—only older. Meanwhile, what new groups are now choosing to step into rural spaces? The poverty alleviation campaign was, in essence, a massive social engineering project that mobilised vast external resources into the countryside, driving large-scale intervention and restructuring.
Foodthink: Considerable funds have also been directed towards physical infrastructure. While the upgrades to rural infrastructure are undeniable, we have also witnessed projects of questionable utility that amount to little more than a waste of public money. During fieldwork in Shanxi, we came across a rather absurd situation. Previously, dry latrines allowed waste to be removed for composting. Following so-called toilet upgrades, waste must instead be pumped away for centralised treatment. In some cases, these were pure vanity projects: a ceramic toilet was simply installed over a traditional dry latrine without any connection to sewage or water supply, leaving local farmers unfamiliar with how to use them.Liu Juan: I share that sentiment entirely. When it comes to interventions in rural development, I have grown increasingly cautious. I have taken part in project evaluations and case-study research covering a wide range of initiatives, from industrial ventures to numerous rural construction schemes. Yet more often than not, we find that development interventions are driven by well-intentioned, albeit idealistic, aspirations for ‘improvement’.
Over the past decade or so, in particular, countless projects have been funded with substantial investment, only to struggle to become operational, let alone see full utilisation or deliver tangible benefits to local communities. Some have even been abandoned outright. The more you delve into this, the more it can evoke a sense of unreality and futility. Take, for instance, a centralised wastewater treatment facility built in a remote mountainous township. In such terrain, how do you practically collect wastewater from scattered, individual households? Moreover, treating it demands technical expertise, staff, and ongoing funding. Consequently, once construction is complete, operational challenges arise. In some places, these projects cannot even be handed over; local townships simply refuse to take them on.
V. Bridging Disciplinary Divides to Jointly Tackle Climate Change
Foodthink: You just mentioned that there is very little research combining climate change with rural transformation. Why is that the case?Liu Juan: One possible reason lies in disciplinary divides. While many researchers in the natural sciences and economics study climate change, there is a lack of focus on what is actually unfolding at the micro-level and on underlying social factors. Students and academics in the social sciences seem reluctant to engage with climate or environmental issues, perhaps because they find these fields unfamiliar or difficult to grasp.
To date, my engagement with professional groups in China that show a meaningful interest in this has been limited, primarily centring on environmental sociology and political ecology. Within environmental sociology, the study of climate change still tends to lean towards purely sociological or political analysis, treating environmental and climatic factors more as background context. Political ecology, by contrast, focuses more on the interplay between social structures, power relations, and environmental issues; it remains a relatively new and niche field domestically. Searching CNKI may yield a handful of literature reviews on political ecology, largely authored by Marxist scholars, or by anthropologists and geographers synthesising foreign works in the field. Overall, empirical research in Chinese remains quite scarce.
Since last year, a political ecology workshop I participate in has brought together young researchers from diverse disciplinary backgrounds, with the aim of nurturing a new research community. Climate change and agrarian transition are among the key themes discussed. We hope to achieve some modest breakthroughs over the next three to five years, including translating, introducing, and mapping different schools of political ecology, and developing analytical frameworks tailored to China’s agricultural and rural sectors.
● The second political ecology workshop, co-organised by Liu Juan, is soon to take place.Foodthink: There is an abundance of literature on the impact of climate change on agriculture, yet very few studies examine how it affects the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. Furthermore, we have found that even where research does exist, it tends to merely confirm already known issues and falls short of offering actionable recommendations to guide practice.Liu Juan: The broader, quantifiable issues are already fairly well understood. What is needed now are more granular narratives that capture the complexity of these challenges and pinpoint where the crux lies. That is why foundational research remains so vital.
I have noticed that international bodies and rural community organisations tend to place less emphasis on the preliminary research phase of projects, favouring instead visible, quantifiable short-term interventions and concrete activities. If high-quality research has already been conducted and projects can simply build upon those findings, that is perfectly acceptable. However, when launching a new intervention, conducting research to grasp the fundamental dynamics of the issue, assess its nature, and identify the critical factors is crucial. This approach helps avoid patchwork fixes that merely treat symptoms, and steers clear of perfunctory workshops, training sessions, or superficial interventions.
Foodthink: So how should social organisations and researchers interact?Liu Juan: I believe rigorous research is essential. It is vital to bridge academic inquiry with practical action, and NGOs must strengthen their collaboration with research institutions to ensure they fully grasp the nature of a problem before stepping in with interventions or initiatives.
Take, for instance, cases where the core of the problem lies at the institutional level. In such situations, we may first need to drive solutions through policy advisory work and dialogue. Consequently, the priority of action would not necessarily be direct, individual-level intervention. While targeting individuals might resolve isolated issues, the overall impact would likely remain limited.
When the work involves advocacy, it is often necessary to first bring the issue to light—using media or other channels to build public awareness—so that a meaningful, broader effect can be achieved. In practice, there are indeed organisations or projects that rush into action or intervention without having fully grasped the essence of the issue or the right approach to understanding it. This all too easily generates further complications.
Foodthink: Could you give an example of a situation where addressing policy issues needs to come first?Liu Juan: For instance, when discussing agricultural adaptation to climate change and strengthening smallholder resilience, our research indicates that focusing on individual or household-level capacity yields limited impact. The emphasis ought instead be placed on the community or socio-ecological system level, which demands coordination and collaboration at a higher tier, alongside a great deal of meticulous, ground-level work.
Agricultural insurance offers another example. With production costs running high, profits staying low, and the general willingness to grow staple crops flagging, ought the financial risks of cultivating main grain crops to fall on the farmers themselves? And what precisely should the accountability framework for food security look like? If we genuinely want farmers to keep cultivating and remain committed to it, surely we need policy-backed safety nets. These would ensure they are not left scrambling or anxious, regardless of whether they face a season of favourable weather or a year plagued by extreme climate events.
Then there is the matter of labour. Across many regions, farming is now predominantly the work of older generations. Even where younger family members reside on the land, it is invariably the elderly who handle the actual physical toil and care most deeply about the land. If we hold the idealistic view that we can simply train them to adopt more eco-friendly farming and husbandry practices, we must recognise that such measures often demand greater physical effort. This only makes their workload heavier and their efforts harder to sustain. It is not that they are unaware of the need to reduce chemical fertilisers, pesticides, and herbicides; the issue is simply one of capacity. From an intervention perspective, what is actually required are ecological farming and husbandry methods that lower labour demands and make life a little easier for the workers.
● In August 2023, at a sustainable food and farming media workshop hosted by Foodthink, Liu Juan presented her research to more than 30 journalists and media professionals.
VI. What to Do and What Not to Do
Foodthink: It sounds as though smallholder farmers who still work the land are already bearing a burden they should not have to carry. What external actors need to do is help lighten their load, rather than bolting on extra armour for the sake of so-called climate adaptation.
Liu Juan: A few years ago, during our fieldwork in Shaanxi, we came across similar cases. Local industries, including those linked to poverty alleviation, absorbed large numbers of women for local or nearby employment. This allowed women in the area to earn some income, which appeared highly positive from the standpoint of female economic independence. Yet, their own experience was largely one of exhaustion. They might work ten hours a day, earning an additional wage, while male labourers still had to migrate for work. Consequently, farm chores and household duties still awaited them, forcing them to constantly calculate how to carve out time. For many women, the prevailing feeling was utter fatigue, hardly the “better life” they had hoped for.
Some initiatives also aimed to get older people to raise pigs, helping them secure industrial subsidies and bonuses. The organisations driving these projects may genuinely have given little thought at the time to factors such as labour input, capabilities, and climate and market risks.
Foodthink: In some regions, governments and non-governmental organisations have promoted integrated projects combining cattle rearing, biogas, and composting. The rationale was to boost farmers’ incomes while simultaneously delivering climate mitigation and adaptation benefits. However, when meat prices fell, these projects naturally failed. This serves as a reminder: if smallholders are not analysed within the broader regional and global economic and political landscape to understand their position, projects risk being short-term measures that address symptoms rather than root causes.
Liu Juan: Precisely. Approaching the problem from the standpoint of environmental and social justice might yield a more precise entry point. The impacts of climate change and the costs of adaptation are distributed highly unevenly across different groups and regions.
Addressing climate change requires not only the relentless efforts of natural scientists but also interdisciplinary perspectives, such as political ecology, to examine climate justice at a societal level. Broadly speaking, relatively vulnerable groups are unfairly bearing the direct and indirect impacts of climate change, yet their capacity to act is severely constrained. Within their sphere of autonomy, they have very little scope for mitigation or adaptation actions.
Some scholars and social organisations are striving to harness grassroots strength and wisdom. However, we must avoid romanticising local knowledge and grassroots ingenuity to the point of ignoring the inherent nature of climate change and the inequalities embedded within social structures.
Foodthink: Indeed. We have also observed that the relationship between climate change and agriculture and farmers is profoundly complex, yet many interventions only address one facet. As you mentioned earlier, it becomes a case of “treating the symptoms rather than the underlying causes,” which may ultimately trigger new problems.
Liu Juan: In reality, we have not yet fully untangled the multiple complex relationships between climate change and the transformation of agriculture, rural areas, and farmers, or agrarian political transitions. This has led to numerous interventions that are chaotic, and even contradictory. For instance, mitigation, adaptation, and straightforward disaster prevention and reduction may target different issues, actors, and attribution frameworks, creating numerous dilemmas and conflicts at the practical level.
Foodthink: This may also be linked to the overall lack of awareness of climate change within Chinese society.
Liu Juan: Indeed. The absence of environmental and climate education is part of the problem, as we also discussed in a conversation last year regarding the disparity in climate change awareness between urban and rural populations. We have grown so accustomed to our calm and stable working and living environments, to the convenience, comfort, and cleanliness of daily life, that we rarely stop to consider the material and social conditions that make it all possible. We seldom reflect on the suffering and sacrifices occurring nearby or elsewhere, nor do we recognise the intricate connections between environmental and climate issues and each one of us. Consequently, it is extremely difficult to forge a societal consensus on action.
Interviewee
Liu Juan
Associate Professor and PhD Supervisor at the College of Humanities and Development Studies, China Agricultural University. Her research primarily focuses on political ecology and environmental social studies, as well as agrarian political economy and development studies. She currently serves as Associate Editor and Co-Editor of a special issue for the SSCI-indexed journal World Development.
▼ Opening this Friday in Guangzhou, the Harvest Celebration Festival is a rare public event in China that brings together farmers, consumers, academics, civil society organisations, and the media to explore food and agriculture. Climate change has been a recurring theme over the past few years. Click the image for event details.
Unless otherwise stated, images are provided by interviewees.
